Q: We had been in Mammoth through the holiday period and that we looked at some condos on the market. We came away together with the impression that Mammoth real estate property is a superb value right now. We think recent years of drought suppressed values. What do you think?
A: Mammoth condos are always a good value when the ski conditions are great. With snow comes enthusiasm. Alumni of the Intrawest sales teams will unquestionably keep in mind the phrase “Selling may be the transfer of enthusiasm.” So snow equals enthusiasm equals the selling of real estate property. But is Mammoth real estate a good value without or with snow?
We could talk information on proposed developments, and who should own the Ski Area, increased air service and fancier ice rinks all we wish. But quality snowpack to experience and recreate on may be the crème de la crème supporting the value of local real estate. Especially since an increasing number of property owners want to maximize nightly rental income along with the winter visitors are the “money” within the equation. Because respect days gone by four drought winters have negatively impacted values.
Value is unquestionably subjective and subjected to multiple factors. Let’s look at other important dynamics affecting Mammoth’s real estate “value.”
The recent drought period has additionally coincided using the peak and eventual decline of the distressed property market. Foreclosures and short sales impacted the real estate values here in Mammoth up to any place in the nation. Foreclosures peaked from the 2011-12 timeframe and short sales peaked shortly thereafter (and just how government entities intervened in all that can be another column). The most effective “deals” (lowest prices) were can be found for the reason that period. So the foot of this past market cycle really occurred along with the beginning of the drought.
Additionally there is a large faction of mammoth real estate for sale who purchased or refinanced from the mid-2000s who definitely have been looking to liquidate but can’t afford losing their good credit standing. For these people a foreclosure or short sale has gone out-of-the-question. It is the nature of this market. Many have watched real estate values nudge upward in the past few years and therefore are deciding to sell. Several of these sellers have to put money into the purchase to seal the escrow. Some are taking substantial loses (and a few are offsetting those loses with gains inside their other investment areas).
Nevertheless the winding down in the distressed property cycle combined with the drought winters created an equilibrium available in the market. There has been enough supply and enough demand to keep selling prices within a stable range. There has been no gigantic push upward like countless other markets in California. So when usual in Mammoth, there are many different segments of your market that have moved differently.
One of many market comparisons I love to make is really what a home sold for from the mid-2000s peak market era compared to a recent sale. I only love to use exact same properties for your comparisons because there could be so many minute but critical variables. When closed sales come through the MLS I check to see when the property sold back into the 2004-2007 timeframe. I try to see if there are actually any significant improvements that were carried out to the house that might impact the calculation.
Many of the sales that get caught in this comparison study show that the Mammoth market is selling at 60 to 70 % in the selling prices from the mid-2000s. And again there are numerous variables. The Intrawest developed and sold properties from that era usually have lower percentages (meaning they typically sold for higher market prices several years ago). The cheapest recent sale i recall was 53%. On the very lowest of the market some were below 40% with their mid-2000 selling price (most were foreclosure/REO properties). Around the opposite side there are some Mammoth properties which are selling slightly over 70% of the things they sold for within the peak period. However the majority happen to be in the 60 to 70% range.
One could surmise out of this how the values simply have rebounded modestly. And maybe the drought winters had plenty related to it.
The drought winters also delayed a number of the Ski Area’s plans for development and expansion. The existing ownership seems destined to spend some money for capital improvements with money they realize as profits as opposed to utilize money they are able to borrow. So these improvements have been postponed by the drought winters. These Ski Area improvement projects always tend to create some real estate property buzz (enthusiasm) and several increased demand. Investors always follow investors and investment.
The thing that strikes me as odd is the Ski Area’s ownership owns an important area of the remaining developable real estate in Mammoth but they see no reason to adopt a bit risk to stimulate the regional values. But what do I realize? Sometimes it would appear that the environmentalists do run the show here in Mammoth. The older I get the greater number of I feel which may be that is a positive thing.
And lately it appears the the Ski Area’s owners have realized the “good value” of obtaining the Town’s ice rink aligned with a bunch of their real estate property. We’ll need to see.
Another way of assessing regardless of if the local property is actually a “good value” looks at what exactly is being newly built; almost nothing. If values were overinflated there could be construction taking place everywhere. Today, buyers who require a nice condo to acquire have to look at a unit which was integrated the 2000s or examine something which needs significant remodeling. Even the ones built in the 2000s require some updating and many of the older ones are deserving of “to the studs” remodels. But in either case the best price-per-square foot will likely be near the simple expense of today’s new and quality construction. And that doesn’t include the land or permits. Many people feel that properties selling “below replacement value” equate to “good value.”
The sole item that is now being newly built in the current market are a handful of homes in Sierra Star. They are single-family homes in the $900,000 to $1,500,000 range. This is a very strong segment of your Mammoth market and that cool product is helping to fulfill the demand. Of the 79 single-family home sales in 2015, 30 were priced in excess of $1million. Many buyers are seeing the “good value” within the new homes. Just take a look at all the factors. The lots can be found on among the most gorgeous fairways in the Sierra Star golf course. These parcels were previously slated for condominiums. But that market doesn’t exist. And so the land is likely being acquired at a cost that helps make the whole equation work.
The equation also may include a skilled developer and builder with four decades of experience in Mammoth. The project may well be being run as efficiently and effectively as is possible while producing a very attractive finished home and neighborhood. The bonus for many owners is always that the zoning allows nightly rentals. And also the rental/revenue potential is apparently quite high. The total package is incredibly attractive, especially when the discriminating new owners arrive at select each of the finishing touches.
Another “good value” factor will be the healthier state of the local condominium associations. Many buyers, owners and sellers might not exactly recognize this. The California Civil Code (aka “Davis-Stirling”) requirements on HOAs get the associations running more professionally than previously. This runs from accounting and reserve requirements to regular meetings and communications. For associations where the vast majority of owners are second homeowners, this is more important. And 64dexmpky drought has played a part too; local HOAs have saved on snow removal expenses in past times couple of years and they have also been compelled to reconsidered their water and labor intensive landscaping.
And in case a buyer is looking to construct their own personal home here in Mammoth, the vacant land market still offers excellent and relatively affordable opportunities. Mammoth remains land-locked so sprawl is unthinkable. And also the hard costs of subdividing land remain high. So for people looking with this direction, this good value can be quite a “great value.”
Ultimately the “good value” criteria is just as different as the plethora of buyers and people who own Mammoth property. The problem is making the best match, and that isn’t easy. But which is the job of a good agent or broker. And yes, some properties are clearly better values than others. And that is true with the whole price spectrum. And it is never all about price.
So circling returning to the question, yes Mammoth remains an excellent value. The better it snows the more effective the value. So allow it snow, allow it to snow, allow it snow!